“As envisaged in Feb-24 report, Nifty sailed through election based volatility and approached our target of 23400, Post election outcome, as anxiety settles down, while reigniting expectations on reforms agenda, budgetary allocations and earnings, markets have once again resumed upward trajectory,” said the firm in a note.
The brokerage firm further said that since 1999, in election years, the Nifty has typically gained a median of 21% from post-election outcome lows until the end of the year.
Notably, these gains often come with intermediate corrections of 4-6%, presenting buying opportunities. Since June 2022, each 10% correction in the Nifty has been followed by a 20% rally over the subsequent six months. Applying a similar projection from the election result day low suggests a target of 25,200 by the end of December.
“Nifty continues on the path of our CY30 target of 50000, as part of Decadal cycle projection and we reiterate the structural bullish stance for CY30 as well as for CY24. Our composite model projects Nifty target of 25200 by December 2024, with strong support at 22200 levels,” it added.
The current global scenario reinforces the upward trend hypothesis. Over the last five election years, U.S. markets have typically surged by an average of 9% from June to December.
Structural shift in domestic inflow has helped mitigating impact of Fll selling, by providing depth. Further, return of FIl flow in H2CY24, with prospects of rate cuts in US, would be incremental positive from liquidity perspective, it added.
Here are top picks by ICICI Securities across different sectors –
BFSI – SBI, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank,Kotak Mahindra Bank,Bank of Baroda, AB Capital,LIC Housing Finance, L&T Finance,Canfin Homes
PSU –HAL, BEL, Sail,Coal India, NTPC. Engineers India,NMDC, Concor,Union Bank of India
Capital Goods –L&T,ABB, Thermax, KEC International, Grindwell Norton, ELGI Equipment, SKF Bearing
Oil & Gas & Energy –Reliance Industries, ONGC, Petronet LNG, Gail, HPCL,Tata Power, JSW Energy,NHPC
Auto –M&M, Tata Motors, Hero Motocorp, Escorts, Sansera Eng, Exide Inds, Sona BLW, JK Tyres, Ashaia India glass
Information Technology –TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Latent View, Newgen Software, Birla Soft, Firstsource Solutions
Consumption & Retail –Titan, Trent, Havells, Amber, Voltas, Dabur India, Vguard, Indian Hotel, MHRIL
Pharma & Chemicals –Sun Pharma, Divis Lab, Zydus Life, Granules, Gufic Bio,Natco Pharma, Flurochem, Sudarshan Chemical, Navin Fluorine, SRF Ltd, PI Ind
Real Estate –DLF, Brigade,Godrej Properties, Arvind Smart, Kajaria Ceramics, Century Plywood
Infra and Metals –Ambuja Cement, Sagar Cement, JK Cement, Adani Port, HG Infra, NCC, Tata Steel, JSPL, Hindalco, HEG
Others – Taj GVK, PCBL, Astra Microwave, Tejas Network, ICIL, SIYSIL, Chambal Fertilizer, Texmaco Rail, Gulf Oil Lubricants
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Published: 25 Jun 2024, 04:53 PM IST
