Stock Market News: Although the domestic benchmark indices, Sensex and the Nifty 50, ended the Friday session in the red after rallying for four days, but they ended the month with their biggest gain in 2024 thanks to the return of foreign capital and the return of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the fold.
Nifty 50 did not finish Friday’s trading session in the green, even though it reached a new high of 24,174. Nevertheless, it was able to cross the 24,000 threshold and, more significantly, close the week with a gain of more than 2%.
The 30-share BSE Sensex ended lower by 210.45 points or 0.27% at 79,032.73 level while the Nifty 50 closed at 24,010.60 level, down 33.90 points or 0.14%.
Also Read: Stock market today: Nifty 50, Sensex slip from record highs, snap their 4-day winning run
Although it was an outperformer throughout the earlier part of the week, Bank Nifty has now been an underperformer. On the other hand, the broader markets, the Nifty Smallcap Index gained 0.71% while the Nifty MidCap 50 closed above the dotted lines, up 0.84%.
The market will be guided by key domestic and international economic data, including the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, HSBC India Services PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun), ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed speech, JOLT job opening data, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, and Unemployment Rate decisions, according to Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President of Master Capital Services Ltd.
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
- In line with our view, Nifty 50 resolved higher and surpassed our target of 23,800. Consequently, weekly price action resulted into sizable bull candle carrying higher high, indicating continuation of uptrend.
- Going ahead, Nifty 50 would consolidate in the broader range of 24,400-23,600 with a positive bias wherein stock specific action would prevail. However, 14% rally (off Election outcome day low) which has hauled daily and weekly stochastic oscillator in overbought territory (placed at 89 and 95, respectively). Thus, temporary breather should not be construed as negative instead buying dips would be the prudent strategy to adopt as strong support is placed at 23,600.
- In the coming month, markets will look for further direction from Union Budget announcements, progression of Monsoon and inflation expectations and Q1FY25 earnings. From the seasonality perspective, July has produced positive returns in 80% occasions over past two decades and similar probability of positive returns is observed even in past five election years spanning two decades wherein budget related expectations tend to weigh on sentiments. Average returns for July has been >2%.
- Structurally, the formation of higher peak and trough signifies elevated buying demand that makes us revise support base at 23,600 as it is 10 days EMA coincided with 61.8% retracement of last week’s up move (23,350-24,174).
On expected lines, Bank Nifty resolved higher and logged a fresh lifetime high of 53180. We expect, Banking index to consolidate in 53,500-51,000 amid overbought condition of weekly stochastic oscillator.
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