Ritesh Jain, a Dalal Street veteran, trend watcher and Global Macro Investor, captures global macro investment opportunities and economic, business and financial trends with charts and commentaries in this space

The initial BUMP in bookings is evident at most places including US


Copper/Gold ratio and US Treasuries

Whenever copper starts outperforming GOLD we are at the cusp of some cyclical recovery. This chart is also telling us that US treasury yield is too low and should rise.


Historically speaking… Global stocks are expensive even from 2 year Forward P/E


Highlights from today’s US Petroleum Status Report:

• Total US output falls 600k to 10.5M bbl/day

• Now down 2.6M bbl/day from Mar 2020 high

• Back to production last seen in Mar 2018

• Rig counts down another 7 last week to 199


A new cold War without US security Umbrella


Put/Call ratio is at the 19th most overbought day in 20 years. Few days ever reached such an extreme level. This is even more extreme than at the stock market’s top in *February 2020*


Fed B/S shrinks by $74B in week ended June 17th

This was powered by a plunge in repo balances and foreign central bank liquidity swaps, while some alphabet-soup programs also unwound. And the junk-bond and ETF buying program stalled. I believe that any correction in market which is more than 5% will lead to Fed ramping up its balance sheet again


Covid impact on online penetration in EU retail


Vietnam is a big winner in last 5 years


Source link