The majority of polls estimate the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance will win between 350 and 400 seats overall, which is far more than the 272 seats needed for a majority in the 543-seat lower house of parliament. The alliance took home 352 in 2019. On Tuesday, the votes will be counted.
“The markets are likely to begin the week on a buoyant note, tracking exit poll outcomes favouring a stable government at the centre. We reiterate our positive stance and expect Nifty 50 to head towards our earmarked target of 23,400 in the coming weeks, backed by strong global cues, while key support is placed at 22,400,” said Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities.
Also Read: Indian stock market: How is market expected to open on Monday post exit polls, GDP data?
Stock markets ended their five-day losing streak on Friday due to value investing and investors shifted their attention to exit polls that was out on June 1.
The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed by 75.71 points or 0.10% to settle at 73,961.31. The Nifty 50 rose by 42.05 or 0.19% to close at 22,530.70.
In the five days leading up to Thursday, Nifty 50 and Sensex fell more than 2% due to extreme volatility in expectation of the Lok Sabha polls.
The RBI’s Monetary policy outcome, which is set for June 7, will be the next significant trigger after the election results. A crucial area to keep an eye on will be how foreign investors react following the election results. Globally, macroeconomic data from China and the USA will also be quite important in determining market sentiment, according to market experts.
Also Read: Indian stock market: Analyst say ‘ache din’ to continue, here’s why
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
The index started the week on a positive note and clocked a fresh All-time high. However, profit booking from higher levels dragged Nifty 50 around 22,500. Consequently, weekly price action formed a bear candle carrying higher high-low, indicating profit booking amid elevated anxiety ahead of General Election outcome.
Along with robust technical set up and exit poll outcome favouring stable government at the center, markets are likely to begin the week on a buoyant note. We also expect volatility to subside post-Election outcome. Hence, we reiterate our positive stance and expect Nifty 50 to head towards our earmarked target of 23,400 in coming weeks backed by the strong global cues. In the process, 22,400 would continue to act as key support. Thus, any temporary breather should be capitalised as incremental buying opportunity. On the sectoral front, Banking, Public Sector Undertakings (PSU), Capital Good & Infra, Defense, Power and Telecom would be in focus.
Structurally, key point to highlight is that, since start of CY24, Nifty 50 has not corrected for more than 5% on multiple occasions despite host of negative news. Consequently, Nifty 50 has formed a strong higher base formation at 21,800. For the upcoming week, key support is placed at 22,400 being confluence of following observations:
A) 50 days EMA placed at 22,392
B) 50% retracement of current up move (21,821-23,110)
C) Past two week’s low of is placed at 22,404
On the Bank Nifty front, we expect it to head towards 51,000 in coming weeks while strong support remains at 48,000.
Also Read: Stocks to buy: BHEL, IRCON looking attractive, here’s why
Top Stock Recommendations:
Buy State Bank of India (SBI) in the range of ₹820-835 for the target of ₹890 with a stop loss of 792.
Buy NTPC in the range of ₹358-366 for the target of ₹408 with a stop loss of ₹342.
Also Read: Mcap of 8 of top 10 most valued firms’ plunge by ₹2.08 lakh crore; Reliance, TCS most hit
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Published: 02 Jun 2024, 06:10 PM IST
