Bulls are likely to tighten their grip on D-Street in the next market session on Monday, June 3, after most of the exit polls predicted on Saturday that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA may win over 350 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Market analysts are bullish on Nifty 50’s upcoming rally and said BJP’s clear victory as predicted by exit polls is likely to remove election-related jitters among investors.
“Exit polls results which indicate clear victory for the NDA with around 360 seats completely removes the so called election jitters which have been weighing on markets in May. This comes as a shot in the arm for the bulls who will trigger a big rally in the market on Monday,” said Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.
Here’s what exit polls predict for June 4
Several exit polls showed a massive win for the BJP in Karnataka, the state it lost to the Congress just few months back. Meanwhile, India TV-CNX poll said the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP and the NDA is likely to sweep Andhra Pradesh polls.
An exit poll is a post-election survey which tends to predict the mood of the nation. It’s an opinion poll showing how many seats a political party will likely win. It must be noted that exit polls are not same as the official elections results. The official Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 will be declared on June 4 by the Election Commission of India.
Most of the exit polls projected the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament, where 272 is needed for a simple majority. A two-thirds majority will allow the government to bring in far-reaching amendments to the Constitution. The opposition “INDIA” alliance led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party was projected to win between 125 to 165 seats.
The NDA won 353 seats in the 2019 general election, while the BJP accounted for 303. In his first comments after the voting phases ended, PM Narendra Modi expressed confidence in his party’s victory on June 4, when the final counting figures will provide the conclusive election results.
“I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” he said in a post on microblogging platform X, without providing evidence of his claim. “The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with the voters. They are casteist, communal and corrupt,” added PM Modi.
Lok Sabha elections are considered one of the most consequential in India’s history. If BJP’s Narendra Modi wins, he will be only the second leader to retain power for a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.
‘’The estimates of exit poll suggest a solid win for the NDA, surpassing the 350+mark and with better traction for the BJP in skeptical states like Maharastra and southern India. While final outcome may diverge from exit polls, a political continuity is likely to be good for risk assets in the immediate run and macro stability for the medium term,” said Madhavi Arora- Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services.
How will stock markets respond on June 3?
Geojit’s Dr. V K Vijayakumar
Largecaps in financials, capital goods, automobiles and telecom are likely to lead the rally. The bulls will be further emboldened by the better-than-expected 8.2% growth in GDP numbers which came after market hours on Friday. Technically and fundamentally the market is poised for a rally.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
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Published: 01 Jun 2024, 09:07 PM IST
